Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 12.407762 13.955218 15.692843 17.802930 20.315446 23.236019 26.924152
2025-06-29 9.901126 11.742322 13.968333 16.901709 20.733363 25.668118 32.676320
2025-07-06 8.516181 10.448141 12.898897 16.311224 21.066908 27.668316 37.931057
2025-07-13 8.388491 10.655465 13.678549 18.143162 24.827574 34.940965 52.478685
2025-07-20 7.900995 10.297026 13.613838 18.738742 26.859329 40.046649 65.177943
2025-07-27 7.203916 9.560767 12.911708 18.262895 27.108728 42.277616 73.457485
2025-08-03 6.889976 9.328287 12.899077 18.816962 29.087769 47.872012 90.256992
2025-08-10 6.429092 8.833145 12.431926 18.565631 29.617887 50.888550 102.720075
2025-08-17 6.031115 8.395998 12.006833 18.320381 30.099654 53.894371 116.440311
2025-08-24 5.707542 8.045011 11.681804 18.199308 30.780864 57.460015 133.336361
2025-08-31 5.359043 7.628881 11.213987 17.768031 30.778847 59.512312 147.009525
2025-09-07 5.097901 7.332173 10.917026 17.609743 31.299262 62.902285 166.860172
2025-09-14 4.724221 6.843946 10.282904 16.799854 30.419854 62.900461 176.170529
2025-09-21 4.375838 6.378090 9.657164 15.950962 29.351116 62.228830 183.060163
2025-09-28 4.109634 6.031257 9.211769 15.405284 28.874822 63.030206 196.656090
2025-10-05 4.216314 6.306537 9.869839 17.098511 33.811874 80.556729 303.402854
2025-10-12 4.140237 6.266479 9.959029 17.647962 36.150865 91.460087 396.428647
2025-10-19 3.935168 5.992068 9.598211 17.209012 35.911268 93.845276 440.681669
2025-10-26 3.868872 5.954910 9.674932 17.720086 38.265081 106.324596 586.428471
2025-11-02 3.714813 5.754106 9.427514 17.488310 38.557798 111.321101 683.417810
2025-11-09 3.572179 5.566359 9.192888 17.262057 38.831916 116.433518 799.042334
2025-11-16 3.452238 5.413373 9.015799 17.150331 39.424679 123.230307 962.710684
2025-11-23 3.308169 5.209924 8.727543 16.752179 39.099130 125.904645 1084.620110